Audio Guide | Technology Maturity Assessment and Prediction Method Based on TRIZ Theory and LSTM

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Technology Readiness Level (TRL) is a widely used method for quantifying the technological development progress of major scientific and engineering projects, indicating the development status of a technology relative to the system or the entire project. Technology maturity assessment is a systematic standard, method, and tool for quantifying the maturity of key technologies in equipment development.

Research on technology maturity assessment has always been a focus both domestically and internationally. Previous studies often relied on expert reviews, lacking standardized and objective criteria. In 1995, NASA published a white paper on technology maturity, systematically proposing nine levels of technology maturity. At the same time, Russian scientist Altshuller, based on the study of 2.5 million patents in various technological fields worldwide, proposed a systematic and efficient innovation method—TRIZ theory. The technology evolution theory in this theory posits that every product is an evolving system, and technological systems evolve over time towards higher levels, undergoing processes of incubation, growth, maturity, and decline, meaning that the evolution of technology satisfies the technology system maturity curve (S-curve).

The TRIZ technology evolution theory suggests that any technological system undergoes a process from low-level to high-level, which coincides with an S-shaped curve known as the technology system evolution S-curve, as shown in Figure 1. This curve explains the various development stages of technological system evolution, including infancy, growth, maturity, and decline.

Figure 1 Technology System Evolution S-Curve

Stage 1: Infancy. The birth of a product requires the introduction of new technologies. Since the new technology cannot yet solve critical problems, the performance improvement of the product is slow, and only a few resilient companies enter this market.

Stage 2: Growth. The critical issues of the technology are resolved, product performance improves rapidly, and the profitability of companies significantly increases, attracting more companies into the market.

Stage 3: Maturity. All technical challenges of the technology system are essentially resolved, the models diversify, and the number of patents continues to increase.

Stage 4: Decline. The technology system reaches its developmental limits; no matter how much investment is increased, the performance of the technology system cannot be improved. Due to intensified competition among companies, profitability declines, and the product is on the verge of obsolescence.

By selecting appropriate technical performance indicators, determining the position of the product on the S-curve allows for the assessment of the current technological maturity of the product.

Electric propulsion technology for spacecraft was proposed in 1965, with a significant increase in patent applications in 1995. In 1998, the U.S. Deep Space One spacecraft propulsion system successfully used electric propulsion technology for the first time, after which this technology rapidly developed, and the number of patents continued to increase. The strength of the technology also improved rapidly, peaking in 2005. After that, both the strength of the technology and the level of patents showed a fluctuating decline. According to the combined evaluation model, it is predicted that spacecraft electric propulsion technology will enter the decline phase in 2029, and researchers in this field need to quickly find breakthrough technologies or shift to new evolutionary directions.

(The above content is an excerpt.)