Image Source: Visual China
Everyone is currently discussing the convenience and threats brought by artificial intelligence to humanity.
Many of Nietzsche’s works, although incomprehensible during his lifetime, accurately predicted a 20th century filled with what he called “nihilism”. Especially his famous declaration, “God is dead,” which resonated profoundly. The so-called “superman” replaces God.
Now, as we enter the era of artificial intelligence, modern technology experts claim that the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” will give rise to a new “superman,” which raises the question: Are humans still the tightrope walkers over the abyss?
The disruptive transformation of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is racing towards us.
March 14, 2023, may be remembered in the annals of technological progress.
On this day, OpenAI released GPT-4 (Generative AI) in the United States. Following that, Microsoft launched Microsoft 365 Copilot, Baidu introduced “Wenxin Yiyan,” Alibaba unveiled “Tongyi Qianwen,” and Google launched Google Bard… The rapid changes have left people astonished and overwhelmed.
Tech giants are also expected to swiftly adopt AI technologies, reducing the size of their R&D teams. GPT is threatening all professions dealing with text and images, almost covering all white-collar jobs. Even Geoffrey Hinton, hailed as the “godfather of AI,” has issued warnings about the potential dangers of AI, reminding us that AI may surpass human intelligence in the near future.
Think about it, 40 years ago, our wildest imaginations could not compare to today.
In 2017, when Google’s AlphaGo defeated Go world champion Ke Jie, AI had already shattered the cognitive limits of humanity. If every industry had an AI like “AlphaGo,” AGI would have been realized. How can humans and AGI coexist harmoniously then?
Disrupting Human-Computer Interfaces, Unleashing the Magic Box of AGI
The first impact of AGI is the breakthrough in human-computer interface interaction, and such breakthroughs always bring about revolutionary upheavals. Let’s start by discussing the first two breakthroughs. The revolution in IT technology began with the birth of the PC (personal microcomputer), which electronicized the physical world. The reason this revolution could change everyone’s life and work is inseparable from the emergence of the PC graphical interface and mouse; otherwise, computers would still be tools usable only by programmers and engineers who write code. With its emergence, the physical world saw large-scale electronicization, and using PCs for typing became a basic work skill for humans. After electronicization, various office automation systems (OA), enterprise management systems (ERP), and customer relationship management systems (CRM) emerged, which we refer to as IT information projects. Information projects changed the entire industrial chain of humanity, leading to a massive increase in efficiency and large-scale improvements in interaction and collaboration. The second revolutionary breakthrough in human-computer interfaces was the advent of touchscreen iPhones, which facilitated the large-scale application and development of the mobile internet, with the key being that touch, the most basic human action, became the way to interact with machines. As IT information developed to a certain level of maturity, a byproduct emerged: an increasing amount of data. Data seems to have a natural clustering impulse, like a drop of water always yearning to merge into the ocean; it continuously seeks connections, forming a digital ocean. When the digital ocean appears, the accumulation of quantitative changes leads to qualitative changes, prompting people to consider digital transformation and propose the concept of a new economy. What is the old economy? In my view, if data information is processed by human brains, that is the old economy—despite having IT and information technology, the final decision is still made by humans. But today, data has reached a point where it forms an ocean and complex databases, with computers assisting us in processing information; in my view, this is the new economy. Thus, who processes data information is the key distinction between the old and new economies. Machines can process information, doing what humans do, mimicking human intelligence, which gives rise to AI (Artificial Intelligence). What impact will AI’s emergence have on human society? There are two landmark events: one is IBM’s Deep Blue defeating human chess master Garry Kasparov in 1996. The second, exactly ten years later in 2016, was Google’s DeepMind’s AlphaGo defeating Lee Sedol 4 to 1; a year later at the Go Summit in Wuzhen, it again won 3 to 0 against Ke Jie. The global Go community acknowledged that AlphaGo’s skill level far exceeds that of the top human Go professionals. However, in the past few decades, AI’s evolution has primarily occurred at the “engineering” level, until November 30, 2022, when ChatGPT burst onto the scene, allowing human-computer interaction to occur in natural human language. You can simply chat with it, which immediately broke the boundaries from the tech circle to the general public, becoming a tool that relates to everyone, with an impact far greater than that of graphical interface computers on humanity. Although both represent a technological advance, AGI is different from blockchain, Web 3.0, VR, and the metaverse, which discuss future visions and do not immediately flip the present. However, ChatGPT, with the rudiments of AGI, emerged like a wake-up call; its interaction interface with humans is the most familiar form of “chatting,” through which it processes information, becoming smarter the more it interacts. The quality of its responses depends on the quality of the questions you ask, rather than being a search engine. The reason the change in human-computer interfaces has such a tremendous impact is that there is a digital divide between the old and new economies. As Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang said, we are now in the “iPhone moment of AI.” The emergence of ChatGPT’s various application scenarios fills the increasingly widening digital divide between humans and machines. As AI becomes smarter, the divide grows deeper, making it increasingly difficult for humans to jump from one shore to the other. Now, the interface has bridged the divide, making technical AI accessible to everyone, which brings to mind the title of Thomas Friedman’s book from the early 21st century—”The World is Flat.” Thus, it can be inferred that the next wave of technological impact on human society will likely come from brain-machine interfaces, which will once again bridge the digital divide from the dimension of “interface” and change the world.
AGI is Changing Our Present, Not Just a Distant Future
The second key to understanding the impact of AGI is that it is changing the current world at a speed that surpasses our previous cognition, allowing us to witness the awakening of a form of intelligence. It can create content, such as photos, music, reports, magazines, novels, etc., abilities that once belonged uniquely to humans, which machines can now also “generate.” It is precisely because the data volume has reached a certain level that machines seem to have “awakened,” and their intelligent expressions have begun to emerge. It is like our children; one day they suddenly transition from repeating and mimicking adult language to expressing their thoughts for the first time, leaving you in shock, like a magic trick. When the new generation of AI passes the Turing test (which can be anticipated soon), it signifies that humanity is approaching the singularity in terms of distance and time. The third key to understanding the impact of AGI is that the transitional period of changing traditional industries and human life may be very short, requiring us to adapt more quickly to coexist with it. The impact of AIGC (AI-generated content) is directly aimed at knowledge workers; it can write reports, papers, create PPTs, and designs, affecting all aspects of content production and the creative industry. The emergence of AGI’s rudiments has produced a plugin effect. Anyone who connects to and masters this tool will become super powerful. In the past, with the advent of the internet, humanity had the largest storage capacity in history; whatever you wanted could be searched. Today, with the emergence of large models like GPT, all human knowledge and non-living wisdom can be condensed into one brain, akin to having a “second brain” beside us. Will life change? In the past, we said, “Three cobblers with their wits combined equal Zhuge Liang,” but what if there are countless Zhuge Liangs now? Not only will every industry have Zhuge Liangs, but numerous application scenarios will also emerge at a speed that might leave you breathless. If one company already possesses a Zhuge Liang while another does not, the competitive gap will be vast. Thus, it first presents a tremendous opportunity for enterprise software companies. Every enterprise client needs to create its own “AlphaGo” in its industry to become the world champion in that field. I call this the “surrogacy model.” That is, AI software companies work together with enterprise clients using their unique industry data, trained through large models to generate an AGI brain that is unique to that industry and has its own DNA. At the same time, this is also a process for AGI to find more practical application scenarios, which is why we see many generative AI tools emerging like bamboo shoots after rain. The large-scale emergence of AGI will have revolutionary disruptions in which industries? It will certainly be a process of reverse industrialization. For example, in education. Over 2000 years ago, Confucius advocated for education without class distinction, teaching according to individual aptitude, and tirelessly instructing, with the primary teaching method being dialogue and private tutoring. However, good teachers are limited, so we had to move towards industrialization. The advantage is that everyone can receive an education; the downside is that everyone is crammed into a system, producing a bunch of standardized products with almost identical personality traits through a complete set of “standard” production lines. Today, with the emergence of AGI, it is no longer one teacher teaching 300 students, but rather each student having 300 teachers, and all of them are top-notch educators like Zhuge Liang, Einstein, and Shakespeare. This does not impose the obligation of learning on children, but rather returns the right to personalized growth to them, allowing them to learn and develop according to their interests and talents. Its impact on the creative industry will also be unprecedented. In Web 1.0—Information Internet: in the early days of the internet, the main content supply was PGC (Professionally Generated Content), which was in short supply; in Web 2.0—Social Internet: in the mid-stage of the internet, UGC (User Generated Content) emerged, leading to a surplus; and now in Web 3.0—Value Internet: AIGC has emerged, causing the content supply and demand to mutate. It can help you write novels, script, create images, edit videos… almost involving every aspect and every link of the creative industry, making the emergence of AIGC explosive.
Humans and AI Are Not Enemies, But Co-Existing Partners
Conclusion
Today, our greatest concern is the fear of falling behind in the AI era.
Pessimists are correct, while optimists bravely move forward. What we need to think about is how to change ourselves and embrace change. As the wave of AGI sweeps in, we must become innovators. Because it is not AI that replaces humans, but those who can use AI will replace those who cannot. The speed of AI development is so rapid; whether we board this train and stand on the shoulders of giants will lead to unimaginable differences in outcomes.
Forty years ago, if we did not change with the times, we would only experience differences in our careers; in the next forty years, if we do not innovate and adapt, the gap will be unimaginable. (Wealth Chinese Network)
Editor: Yang AnqiDr. Gao Qunyao (Jack Q. Gao, Ph.D), currently a founding partner and CEO of Mobile Cinema. Formerly Senior Vice President of Wanda Cultural Industry Group and CEO of Legendary Entertainment; Global Senior Vice President of News Corporation and 21st Century Fox; President and General Manager of Microsoft China; President of Autodesk’s largest growth region in Asia, etc.
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