In 2030, will artificial intelligence drive economic growth, create breakthrough medical therapies, and simplify daily life as the data suggests? Or are these predictions overly optimistic: will artificial intelligence gradually fade away, or even make the world worse? Will artificial intelligence replace millions of jobs, replace human relationships, and challenge society with falsehoods?
Recently, The Wall Street Journal invited a group of experts from academia, business, consulting firms, and think tanks to predict the development trends of artificial intelligence in 2030.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly developing, and its impact is profound, likely reshaping industries, economies, and the nature of work. However, there remains a disconnect between technological advancement and large-scale commercialization, as scientist and futurist Roy Amara states, “We tend to overestimate the short-term impact of a technology while underestimating its long-term impact.”
2030 is likely to place us between the short-term and long-term impacts of artificial intelligence. Therefore, despite the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technology, we should not expect to see immediate global impacts in the coming years. The integration of artificial intelligence into our daily lives, workplaces, and institutions will be gradual, as these changes occur at a much slower pace than technological changes.
According to Alex Singla, global head of McKinsey’s AI QuantumBlack, the biggest difference between artificial intelligence in 2030 and that of today is its level of integration into businesses.
In the early 21st century, the widespread adoption of the internet allowed businesses that utilized the internet to gain certain advantages, while those that built their businesses around the internet became the most valuable companies. A similar phenomenon may occur with artificial intelligence: by 2030, we will see more organizations integrating artificial intelligence into their work, although such organizations may still be in the minority, their productivity gains highlight the value of artificial intelligence.
Only when artificial intelligence is no longer seen as a new technology, but as an integral part of daily work and life like the internet, will its true potential be realized. 2030 will be a midpoint for this transition.
When discussing artificial intelligence and employment, Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, states that the advancements in artificial intelligence have driven the most profound business transformations in history, and while concerns about mass unemployment persist, the reality is different—people will transform, not become unemployed.
The reason lies in the nature of business development. Even breakthrough technologies take time and effort to translate into productivity, during which new skills, processes, and business models must be invented. Just like in the Fortune 500, there will be a wave of new giants replacing the old, and careers will undergo similar changes—new professions will emerge.
Artificial intelligence will fundamentally change certain job tasks, but humans still have the advantage in handling situations lacking historical data or structured rules: our adaptability surpasses that of machines.